Prediction Markets Guide
What Are Prediction Markets?
Prediction markets let you buy and sell positions on the outcomes of future events — cryptocurrency price movements, protocol governance votes, sports results, economic indicators, and more. Each market has shares representing possible outcomes that pay out based on the actual result.
How Prediction Markets Work
Each market has shares for possible outcomes (e.g., "Yes" and "No"). Share prices range from $0 to $1 and reflect the market's consensus probability.
Example: If you buy "Yes" shares at $0.30 and the event occurs, each share pays out $1.00, giving you $0.70 profit per share. If the event does not occur, your shares expire worthless.
Market Categories
- Politics: Election outcomes, policy decisions, geopolitical events
- Sports: Game results, championship winners, player performance
- Crypto: Token prices, protocol upgrades, network milestones
- Economics: Interest rates, inflation data, GDP figures
- Entertainment: Awards, media events, cultural milestones
- Science: Research breakthroughs, climate data, space events
How to Trade
- Navigate to DEX > Predictions from the main menu.
- Browse markets by category or search for specific events.
- Select a market and choose your position (e.g., "Yes" or "No").
- Enter the number of shares and review the cost.
- Confirm the trade. Your position appears in your portfolio.
Settlement and Resolution
Markets are resolved using the Oracle Aggregator, which verifies outcomes from multiple trusted data sources. For on-chain events, resolution is automatic. For real-world events, designated oracles submit outcomes that are verified by consensus among validators. Disputes can be escalated to the community arbitration system.
Fees
Prediction markets use a dynamic fee based on outcome probability:
- Fee formula: rate = 7% × P × (1 − P)
- At 50/50 odds: ~1.75%
- Near-certain outcomes (P > 0.90): as low as 0.63%, though the fee never drops below a 0.50% floor
- No settlement fee
- Fee split: 70% OmniBazaar, 20% Staking Pool, 10% Protocol Treasury
The exact fee is shown before you confirm any trade.
Position Limits
Position limits depend on your KYC verification tier. Tier 0 users can participate with smaller position sizes, while fully verified users (Tier 3+) have no limits. Users in the United States and the European Union cannot place prediction trades — you can still browse and research every market from anywhere.